Data as Risk Predictor for Temporally-Concentrated Crime Series (Emily Sheard)

Author: Emily Sheard (gy14ejs@leeds.ac.uk)

Effective crime prevention relies on the identification of variables which render particular persons, or places, at a heightened risk of victimisation e.g. possession of desirable goods or inadequate security measures.  The practical utility of such insights can, however, be limited due to a lack of information surrounding their spatio-temporal distributions.  In light of this, much attention has been paid to prior victimisation as an indicator of future risk, particularly for burglary dwelling offences, since local offenders are usually well-placed to return to previously targeted locations (e.g. see Johnson & Bowers, 2004).  Although repeat offending provides an opportunity for preventative intervention, it is important to note that some crime types typically occur beyond the ‘nodes and networks’ (Brantingham & Brantingham, 1993) of offenders’ ‘routine activities’ (Cohen & Felson, 1979), thus making them much more difficult to anticipate!

My PhD research will examine how well different types of data can predict the risk of victimisation across a study area, focusing specifically on instances of ‘car key’ burglary (vehicle(s) stolen with keys obtained via a burglary).  Despite being an ‘unofficial’ subset of the burglary dwelling offence, this crime type has been chosen because the associated spatio-temporal parameters appear to be determined by the location of desirable vehicles, as opposed to the daily mobility patterns of offenders.  For example, the literature identifies that ‘car key’ burglars will, on average, travel further than ‘conventional’ burglars to commit offences (Carden, 2012) and that less deprived areas are more likely to be targeted (Shaw et al., 2010).  It is probable, therefore, that ‘car key’ burglaries will occur in sprees as offenders seek to maximise profits in the minimum amount of time possible given the inherent risks of returning to unfamiliar areas.

A police-recorded crime data set will be analysed to identify the main characteristics of ‘car key’ burglaries and the findings will then be used to inform the choice of predictor data sets.  These will be derived from both ‘traditional’ (e.g. census) and ‘contemporaneous’ (e.g. consumer-related) sources, thus facilitating analysis at different spatio-temporal scales.  I am currently researching suitable methodologies but the overriding aim of the research will be to ascertain which types of data are most able to predict the risk of victimisation for crime types where there is little opportunity for preventative intervention following an initial event.  Future work could include the integration of risk outputs with known offender behaviour and historical crime data to create a prospective model for the location and timing of offences i.e. an ongoing, and proactive, process of spatio-temporal filtering in response to transient hotspots.

Author: Emily Sheard

NB The author recognises that the ‘car key’ burglary MO is vulnerable to technological advancements so the research is being conducted primarily as proof of concept.

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References

Brantingham, P.L. and Brantingham, P.J. 1993. Nodes, Paths and Edges: Considerations on the Complexity of Crime and the Physical Environment. Journal of Environmental Psychology. [Online]. 13, pp. 3-28. [Accessed 6 August 2015]. Available from: http://0-www.sciencedirect.com.wam.leeds.ac.uk/

Carden, R.J. 2012. Car Key Burglaries: An Exploratory Analysis. MSc thesis, University of Cambridge. [Online]. [Accessed 15 January 2016]. Available from: http://www.crim.cam.ac.uk/

Cohen, L.E. and Felson, M. 1979. Social Change and Crime Rate Trends: A Routine Activity Approach. American Sociological Review. [Online]. 44(4), pp. 588-608. [Accessed 6 August 2015]. Available from: http://www.jstor.org/

Johnson, S.D. and Bowers, K.J. 2004. The Burglary as Clue to the Future: The Beginnings of Prospective Hot-Spotting. European Journal of Criminology. [Online]. 1(2), pp.237-255. [Accessed 21 January 2016]. Available from: http://euc.sagepub.com/

Shaw, S.E., Smith, L.L. and Bond, J.W. 2010. Examining the Factors That Differentiate a Car Key Burglary from a Regular Domestic Burglary. International Journal of Police Science & Management. [Online]. 12(3), pp.450-459. [Accessed 22 January 2016]. Available from: http://psm.sagepub.com/